June 20, 2014

Comparing the Future; The next wave of All Star Shortstops

I am want to apologize to the Word Press community. Up until February I was writing about minor league baseball on a regular basis before I started trying to get my facebook page up and running devoted to minor league baseball fans, Breaking Down the Future. But after attending the California/Carolina League All Star game on Tuesday, I realized I had to come back. I have had the privilege of seeing 4 of the top 6 short stop prospects in baseball which include; Carlos Correa (#2 with the Astros), Francisco Lindor (#3 with the Indians), Corey Seager (#5 with the Dodgers) and Raul Mondesi (#6 with the Royals). It made me think if this was in fact the order I felt like they deserved to be in. So today I will break down all aspects of each of these players games.

Since we have 4 shortstops that we are going to compare, I am going to grade them on a 1-4 basis; 4 being the best and 1 being the worst at that skill. At the end I will tally up the points and see if my “grades” are close to that of MLB.COM’s.

Hitting for average: 1. Raul Mondesi: Mondesi, the #30 overall prospect in the minors, is still quite young at 18 years old. He is the youngest player in the Carolina League and he clearly needs 2-3 years before he would see time in the majors. But the question isn’t what he is doing now; the question is what kind of player do we think he will be when he puts on a Royals jersey. At this time, he is batting .243 and has seen his average drop about 30 points over the last month due to back spasms. He has an extremely quick bat who stays level through the strike zone. The problem I see him having (and most of this can do to inexperience) is his inability to stay off the low and away pitches. If Mondesi can work on making the pitcher get the ball up, my feeling is he could be a .280 hitter in the majors, if not higher.

2. Francisco Lindor: Lindor has changed his back arm from last year which has helped him develop a little more power but has seen his average come down slightly. Currently batting .280 in the Eastern League with the Akron Rubber Ducks, Francisco has the potential of hitting a few points higher than most due to his speed. If he can become a better bunter, he could get 10-20 hits extra each year helping him be a .280-.300 type hitter.

3. Carlos Correa: Correa is one of the hottest prospects in the minors and he brought his bat, as well as his .329 average, to Wilmington this week for the All Star game. His team, the Lancaster Jet Hawks, currently has 4 players who are batting .290 or better and it is very hard to pitch to any one of them when they are all hitting behind one another. The question becomes can Correa keep that average up when he could be the only one there? He certainly has the potential to be a .330 hitter but my feeling is he will be closer to .300-.310 on a regular basis.

4. Corey Seager: Corey was one of the talks of Frawley Stadium putting on a display at the skills competition on Monday night. Obviously he wasn’t hitting against regular pitching but the ball just came off the bat differently with him as well as sounded different than everyone else who participated. Seager, whose current average is .344, appears to have the most bat speed and that keeps him in the running of being able to get the ball through holes in the infield as well as hitting it deep. He stays down on the ball and has a swing that doesn’t loop like some minor league hitters. My guess would be of the 4 he would be the one who could win a couple batting championships

Power Potential: 1. Lindor: Unfortunately for him, this was an easy choice. Lindor has never hit over 6 home runs in a season but he could be on his way to breaking that number this season. Currently sitting on 5, Francisco has the potential of being a gap doubles hitter who could even see 40 of them at some point in his career. But power is not what makes Lindor him and I personally would be shocked to see him ever hit more then 15 homeruns for the Indians.

2. Correa: Some of the readers might find this shocking that a guy who has 54 RBI on the season would be considered the 3rd best in terms of power but he has not developed the kind of power we all think he will have. It is only a matter of time before he puts it all together and at 19 years old he still has 2 years before the Astros even consider bringing up the #7 overall prospect in the game. Correa currently has the same amount of homeruns as Lindor with 5.

3. Raul Mondesi. Don’t allow the 1 home run on the season full you. Mondesi has been hurt quite a bit this year and while in Low Class A Lexington Last year, the then 17 year old hit 7 homers. Developing power is the last skill that most minor league players find but Mondesi seems ahead of the curve here.

4. Seager: Again, it has to go back to the bat speed. Seagers bat through the strike zone is one of the best I have seen in the two years of covering minor league ball and he certainly has the biggest potential of being a 30 home run guy at the Major League level. My guess is that the Dodgers will move him up to AA within the next couple of weeks where we will see if he can add to his 12 home runs he has in the California League.

Fielding: 1. Mondesi: Looking at the glove only here, it’s not that he can’t cover ground but he appears to be slightly slow when it comes to reading the ball off the bat. Most of this could be due to inexperience but it is very possible that the Royals could move him over to second base before it is all said and done. There are other reasons for this possible move as well.

2. Seager: It might be a little unfair to just “grade” him off of one game but like Mondesi, there was a lot of hits in the All Star game that went to his side of the field that got past him. He also was unable to make a routine play having a problem with a relay from his glove to throwing hand that allowed a runner to get to first in the second inning. When comparing him to the next two guys, there is no question he is behind them.

3. Carlos Correa: Watching Correa take warm ups in the field before the All Star game was like watching a home run hitter at the plate taking batting practice. He is a very slick fielding shortstop who shows range and has the ability to toss a ball from out of his glove. At one point the 3rd baseman basically took a step back to watch him field. He has amazing range to both sides of the field and is very instinctive.

4. Lindor: Lindor gets my vote as the best fielding short stop of the 4 mainly because of his unbelievable range to his glove side. Balls that go up the middle will die in his glove and he gets to them with ease. Also very instinctive, ne never appears to be out of place due to his range and speed to the ball.

Throwing: 1. Mondesi: Other than his range, the biggest concern with Mondesi is his arm. Not very technically sound, he has problems getting his feet under him which would allow him to throw harder as well as more accurately. This is quite surprising considering how strong his dad’s arm was from the outfield.

2. Seager: Seager could actually be switched here with my #2 shortstop because he is not that far behind him. Seager appears to have a strong arm from the position and if his range doesn’t develop it is possible that the Dodgers could move the #27 rated minor league player over to third.

3. Lindor: The decision to make him the second best has to do with two things for me. The first one being his arm strength when it comes to going into the hole. There is no question he has strength and accuracy when he goes to his glove side. But most of his errors this year have come with him going to the opposite side of the field. He often tries to hurry his throws and he tends to bounce the ball to first. The other reason has to do with a conversation I had last year with Akrons pitching coach. When the then Aeros came into Bowie, he told me that Lindor didn’t eve have the strongest arm in the organization. His pick was actually Jose Ramirez.

4. Correa. Correa doesn’t beat Lindor by much but he appears to have a slightly stronger arm when he goes to the third base side. I also didn’t get a chance to see him go behind the bag and throw to first but the routine throws I seen looked like it had some speed on it and was hitting the first baseman chest high. Those two things I can judge both on and Correa looked like he has a slight edge.

Running: 1. Seager: Running can mean one of two things. Does a player have speed to be able to beat out a throw and how does he run around the bases once he gets on. Watching Seager run from out of the box and seeing him run down the first base line, he is clearly last out of the 4 top prospects in term of speed. The other stat that is telling of how he does on the bases: He has 5 stolen bases and 4 caught stealings.

2. Lindor: If Lindor isn’t the best base stealer of the 4, then he is not far behind. So why make him 3rd here? It has to do with more of his base running then with his speed. I won’t tell Indians fans that he reminds me of Manny Ramirez when he gets on base but I have seen him get picked off quite a few times and I have seen him get thrown out with throws coming in behind him. If he was 18 and were making these mistakes I would chalk it up to inexperience but at almost 21 years old and possibly making an appearance this year in Cleveland, the #9 player should know better.

3. Mondesi: Mondesi has made his share of running blunders as well but I am hoping that at 18 years old he will out grow them. In 2+ years of minor league play, “Adalberto” has stolen 43 bases and has been caught 14 times. If he can learn what to do when he gets on base, he very well could be a bigger threat than what he is now.

4. Correa: The little bit I have seen of Correa, he is a very patient runner. When trying to steal, he has 20 stolen bases on the year and has only been caught 4 times. He also has scored the most runs of the 4 players we are comparing. What’s even more impressive is the fact that I would say he is the 3rd fastest person in this group.

Last Tally: As a shortstop, Mondesi (for me) is clearly the 4th best of this group with only 9 out of a possible 20 points. This number may change as he matures through his minor league career but he does have a bright future where ever he ends up at. My personal opinion is that he will be a 2nd baseman before it is all said and done and that could affect his overall rating. But it is obvious that he is still a good prospect and it will be a lot of fun watching him make his move to Kansas City.

I am upset to report that it looks like Francisco Lindor is 3rd here. The lack of power and his running mistakes is hard to over look when you are comparing the overall player. If we were just grading on fielding, I have no doubt he is the best in the minors and there is no reason why a couple of All Star game appearances as well as Gold Gloves will not be in his future with Cleveland.

Right ahead of Lindor is Corey Seager with 13 out of 20 points. Corey could be a special player even if his future isn’t at short. He is not only the best hitter out of this group but he is one of the best overall hitters in the minors. The Dodgers could be a problem in the NL West once he gets up there and added with Puig and Kershaw.

And with 16 out of 20 points, our winner is in fact Carlos Correa. On MLB.COM, Correa ranks right behind the Cubs top prospect Javier Baez but with an average of .215 and him struggling at AAA, Correa should by pass him as the #1 overall shortstop in the minors once that list is updated. Some people think that as he grows, he may be moved as well. But with his range I would be very shocked to see that happen.

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April 19, 2014

Comparing the future: Francisco Lindor from 2013 to 2014

Back in 2011, the Cleveland Indians took an 17 year old high school kid from Florida with their 8th pick. The book was that he could be a top of the order type hitter who could develop some power as he grew into his frame and be a more than adequate shortstop in the future. Fast forward to 2014 and the book hasn’t changed much on the Indians top prospect Francisco Lindor. There is no question that Lindor has the range and arm to play shortstop in the majors. As I said last year, he has the potential to be a Gold Glove type player for many years. What is in question is what type of hitter he will be when he gets called up. I have seen quite a bit of Lindor over the last two years and I have seen some major changes in his approach at the plate. Breaking down his 2013 stance, the biggest thing to look at is where his back elbow is. The elbow appears to be very high, almost over his head. Last year Francisco was only able to manage 2 home runs but his average between Carolina and Akron was very good (.303). He also showed he could make better than average contact striking out only 46 times in 104 games. The other big thing he did at the plate was have a very wide stance. If you look at his front leg, he starts out having the front leg out where most players will have that same stance as they start to step into the pitch. Courtney Hawkins, a top prospect with the White Sox, had a very similar approach last year himself but the difference is that Hawkins has much more upper body strength to drive the ball. Here are a few pictures of the 2013 version of Francisco for you to see.:

In 2014, Lindor has lowered his elbow to be more even with his shoulder. By doing that, it typically helps a hitter to swing more level through the plane of the strike zone instead of in a looping motion. In Francisco’s case it is allowing him to drive the ball a little more. The other thing is that he has shortened his stance to help him use his hips more through the swing. Power is initially generated with the lower body by stepping into the pitch and using your hips to come through the zone. Now the good news is that Lindor has already matched his 2013 homerun totals in the first 13 games. The bad news is that he is struggling hitting 70 points lower in the early part of the season then what he ended with last year (.231). In the few games I have seen this year (2 on simulcast and 1 in person), it appears that his approach at the plate has hurt him on inside pitches. Bowie kept the ball in on him all night and even made him dive off the plate on two different occasions. His strikeout came on an inside pitch and he has already struck out 9 times in 13 games. Here is some pictures from this year:

I like the few adjustments Lindor has made at the plate and his early struggles should turn around after he reaches 100 at bats on the season. If he can show Cleveland he can hit 10-15 homeruns this year, I would be very surprised if he bats anywhere different than the lead off spot or the 2 hole when he gets called up. Once he does reach Progressive Field, I think he is going to remind a lot of Indians fans of another past shortstop; Omar Vizquel.

April 17, 2014

Comparing the Future: Hunter Dozier and Tim Anderson

When you compare 2 players with one another it’s typically because they play the same position or they have similar characteristics. But in the case of Hunter Dozier and Tim Anderson, the only things they have in common is that they play in the same league and were drafted the same year. Both players were originally drafted as short stops but Dozier was immediately moved to third because his 6’6″ frame is better suited for the hot corner. The 8th pick in the 1st round, Dozier was slotted to be in the back part of the 1st round but due to his signability, the Kansas City Royals decided to take him much higher. Hunter ended his first professional season playing with the low A Lexington Legends. In only 15 games, he hit .327 with 18 hits and 9 RBI and apparently did enough to show the Royals that he deserved to start the 2014 season with the high A Wilmington Blue Rocks. In the first 12 games of this season, the 22 year old has struggled a bit. He is currently batting .174 with 5 RBI and 7 runs scored. Players tend to press when they make the move up but what concerns me the most about his step up is that in 27 games between the South Atlantic and Carolina Leagues, he has yet to hit a homerun.

The top 3 hitters in the Blue Rocks lineup has struggled which certainly doesn’t help Hunter from pressing at the plate. Adalberto Mondesi, the top rated hitting prospect in the Royals farm system, is batting leadoff at a .243 average. Bubba Starling, the 5th pick taken in the 2011 draft, is batting a miserable .098 and then you have Dozier in the 3 hole. Hunter tends to lunge at outside pitches helping pitchers get him out on balls outside the strike zone. Not only must he be more patient to help his own numbers but if he waited, it would make pitchers have to throw the ball over the plate to the two batters in front of him. Right now, Wilmington as a team is the worst hitting team in the Carolina League with a .204 average and the second worst in runs scored with 46.

Where Hunter has to be more disciplined at the plate, he appears to be an above average 3rd baseman. Ranked as the 10th best in the minors, he has decent range (especially to his glove side) and has a very powerful arm from across the diamond. He also has yet to make an error at 3rd which is very impressive for a young player playing the hot corner.

Tim Anderson, when being compared to Dozier, looks to be the complete opposite in both aspects of the game at this point in their young careers. Anderson was the 3rd shortstop taken in last years draft at #17 and was immediately sent to play for the Kannapolis Intimidators of the South Atlantic League. In 68 games last year he batted .277 with 45 runs scored and 24 stolen bases.

Tim is a free swinger, just like Dozier, tying for second in the Carolina League this year with 19 strikeouts. Although he struggles with the outside pitch, he can work the count more into his favor which has helped him to hit about 100 points higher then his Blue Rocks counterpart at .271. The #2 hitter in the Winston Salem Dash’s lineup, he has benefited from having one of the hottest players in the league hitting behind him in Courtney Hawkins. Hawkins is leading the Carolina League with 15 RBI which is in part because Anderson can create runs when he is on base. Anderson ranks 5th in runs scored with 8.

Simply put, Tim’s biggest problem with his game comes from out in the field. The 21 year old shortstop tends to rush his throws and has already committed 7 errors in just 11 games. He appears to have a strong arm but must learn to set his feet when he is making his throws to first. Range wise, I would say he is better than average. He reacts quickly to the ball off the bat and looks like he can cover the 3rd base hole better than he can towards the middle of the field.

Both players could see different obstacles from them advancing through their respective organizations. Dozier could hit a snag in his development if another top 3rd base prospect, Cheslor Cuthbert, makes adjustments while at AA North West Arkansas. Cuthbert is a more polished hitter and is slightly younger but they both seem to be about equal out in the field. If the White Sox feel like Anderson is not progressing at short, it is possible that they could see him moving to centerfield. He certainly has the speed to cover the outfield and looks like he could have the arm to do it as well.

Based on where they are right now, I would say that both players will need at least 2 years before they see any major league time. Hunter has the build to be a middle of the line up type hitter but must learn to use his legs and patience in order to create more power in his game. Tim looks like he could be a potential top of the order hitter but will only go as far as his defense takes him. Either way, I would say that both will be competing in the American League Central against one another for some time.

April 15, 2014

Comparing Courtney Hawkins: 2013 version to 2014

Last year Courtney Hawkins, the Chicago White Sox #1 prospect, was having problems adjusting to the pitching in the Carolina League. When he was drafted in the first round of the 2012 draft he was considered a “boom or bust” player. He had an unlimited amount of power and actually had decent speed for a guy his size but he was undisciplined at the plate which helped him to strike out 160 times in 383 at bats ( a percentage that comes out to an incredible 41.7% of the time!). Pitchers knew if you threw a pitch out side and low that he couldn’t lay off of it and it would be an easy strikeout. Here are a couple of pictures of an at bat during the 2013 season.

There are 3 things to notice in his swing: his original stance, the back elbow and his front leg when he starts his swing. Typically a wider stance will help a player make contact because it creates less motion at the front part of the swing but usually a player will lose power to compensate for control. Most power hitters want to use their legs and hips to drive through the ball but with Courtney already having a wider stance he has pretty much forced his power to be all upper body. It’s also much harder to hit a pitch away because you have eliminated stepping into the pitch and going after it. Secondly, his back elbow is at eye level. If you take a look at most hitters who hit for power and average, they will have the elbow level with their shoulder. Anything different can cause a batter to have a looping swing which will create holes in the strike zone and cause his head to lift up losing site of the ball. Last is that front leg. By having the front leg bent he has basically taken his entire lower body out of the swing. Now take a look at his early 2104 stance:

His stance, although still a bit wide, has closed. He is able to step more into the ball and start to generate power at the initial part of the swing. He has lowered the back elbow significantly. Having the elbow pointed down and not having it even can still create holes through the strike zone but it forces him to now use more of his body and have a more natural swing. It also allows him to stay down on the ball and see the ball better at contact. But the biggest thing is the extension of his right leg. Not only does the extension allow him to use his hips and drive the ball, it helps him to have better balance. In the early part of the season, the change appears to have paid off. He is still striking out quite a bit (13 strikeouts in 10 games) but he has 3 home runs, 14 RBI and batting .316 which is about 140 points higher than what he ended the season on last year (.178). The one thing that he still needs to work on at this point is patience. If he can lay off the low and away pitches, it will force pitchers to throw the ball more over the plate which would be a mistake on their part. Hawkins could see his name back in the top 100 very soon!

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April 13, 2014

Breaking Down the Future: Hunter Dozier

After doing some research last year, I discovered something that really boggled my mind: Apparently teams were willing to take players higher in a baseball draft than where they were projected because of their willingness to sign with that particular team. In an attempt to educate you, the reader, without being extremely long winded, a team is allotted a certain amount of money to use on their draft picks which is determined by where the pick is and what round is in question. If a team has 30 picks in a draft and they pick 5th in each round, MLB will do a tally and tell that team how much they can use total on those picks. A team may sign a pick at any amount they wish as long as the total that is given doesn’t go over that allotted amount. Some teams will take a player higher then where they were projected because the player is willing to sign for less and allowing the drafting team to use more money throughout the draft to get their players signed.

The reason I gave that little breakdown is because Kansas City Royals 2013 top pick, Hunter Dozier, fell into that category. Originally projected to be drafted somewhere around 35-40, the Royals ended up taking Dozier 8th because he would be cheaper to sign then other players. This does not mean that he doesn’t have talent. While at Stephen F Austin University, Dozier batted .394 with 17 home runs and 54 RBI his Junior year.

After being drafted, the Royals immediately moved the shortstop to third base due to his 6’6″ frame. He certainly has a strong enough arm and even though he allowed a ball to get past him in tonights game against the Winston-Salem Dash, looks like he has the range and instincts to play the hot corner. He currently ranks as the 10th best third baseman in the minors.

At the plate, Dozier is a very aggressive hitter. As seen in his 4 plate appearances tonight, he tends to swing at anything close to the plate which has helped in him to having 8 strikeouts in his first 9 games (2 tonight). He currently is batting third in the Wilmington Blue Rocks line up and he might be feeling a little bit of pressure considering their #2 hitter, Bubba Starling, is only hitting .114. Hunter needs to be a little more patient at the plate and work the counts into his favor. Although tonights game was very well pitched by both starting pitchers, the game only lasted 2 hours and 4 minutes.

Hunter may be regarded as the best 3rd base prospect in the Royals organization but in my opinion it’s not by much. Cheslor Cuthbert, who plays for the AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, is one year younger and may be a better fielder than Dozier is right now. Hunter will need to keep his progression up throughout the season in order to maintain his top spot. Since he hasn’t had a full season under his minor league belt, I am going to assume he is going to stay in Wilmington for the majority of the season and could join Cuthbert late this season. Kansas City has a history of pushing players through their minor league systems so it is possible he could reach the majors sometime next year but most likely he will need 2 full seasons before he is ready on the major league level.

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April 6, 2014

Breaking Down the Future: Lucas Giolito

On a cold and windy Saturday night, the Hagerstown Suns hosted the Rome Braves in a South Atlantic League matchup. The stadium was pretty much empty with only 509 people in the stands. My original intention was to skip the game myself. I had made plans to attend a different game that night that would have been much closer and warmer. However, I decided to make the 75 mile trip because the Nationals #1 prospect, Lucas Giolito was scheduled to make his 2014 debut.

Giolito was the Nats #1 pick back in 2012. Originally slated to go much higher, he ended up dropping to 16th because shortly before the draft he ended up spraining his ulnar collateral ligament, a triangular band that sits in the elbow. He was unable to return until July of the following year. In 11 games, Lucas had a 2-1 record with 40 strikeouts in 38 innings pitched and a 1.96 ERA.

Considering all the problems Lucas has had health wise, I have to question the decision of the Suns manager, Brian Daubach, to pitch him in todays game. With a 15-20 mile per hour wind blowing out to right center and a chill factor in the 30’s, it might have been best to push his debut back one more day. It certainly played a part on his line. Giolito could only go 3 innings while giving up 6 hits, 4 runs (3 earned) and he faced 6 batters each inning for 18 total. He had a hard time commanding his fast ball and in the second inning threw a curve ball that landed about 10 feet in front of the plate. He also gave up a 2 run homer to the Braves #8 prospect, Victor Caratini. And as bad as all that sounds, the opposing pitcher, Carlos Salazar faced 16 batters in 2 innings and gave up 5 runs all earned. It was clearly not a good night to be a pitcher.

Obviously this was not a great game to critique his control. But here is what you can take from a game like this. Lucas throws very VERY hard. He often reached 98 on the gun and I have to believe that there was a couple of times where he hit 100. Because of the speed, he has learned to use the curve ball as his strikeout pitch which he showed on his second one on the night. Batters try to sit on the fast ball and get crossed up when he throws a pitch that is 20 miles per hour slower. With that in mind, he reminds me a lot of another top pitching prospect, Jesse Biddle. Although Biddle has a much more looping curve, they both have a lot of deception in their motions. Where Giolito is much more advanced, however, is in the mental part of the game. At no point in the 3 innings where he struggled tonight did he look like he was getting frustrated. Other than the home run, most of the hits he gave up tonight were seeing eye singles and bloopers.

Lucas is only 19 years old and I have to think that the Nationals will be extremely patient with him this year. My feeling is that he will pitch the majority of the season in Hagerstown and could be called up to higher class A Potomac late in the season. The key to his success isn’t his tools but to his health. If he can stay healthy, he could be in the Nats starting rotation sometime in 2016.

April 3, 2014

Breaking Down the American League West Minor League Systems.

When you compare different minor league systems there is two things you have to look at: the number of highly touted prospects each team has in their organizations and how close they are to making an impact on the major league level. Most if the divisions I have compared so far seem to have a clear cut leader with the rest battling for the remaining spots. The American League West breaks that mold. There are two teams that are right at the top with both of them likely in the top 5-7 in the majors. They are deep with talent at several positions and a few of them could see some time in the majors during the 2014 season. The other three teams have a combined 3 prospects rated in the top 100. Now granted, 2 of them will be impact players in the near future but what is worrisome is the fact that the majority of the players who rank in the top 10 in these three teams organizations are not young by minor league standards. There are quite a few players who are 22 and older who are still in AA ball and struggling. Of the 4 divisions I have researched, the American League West as a whole is probably the weakest one.

5. Anaheim Angels: One of the few teams that do not have a single player in the top 100, the Angels do have some talent down on the farm. C.J. Cron ranks as their 3rd rated prospect and is also the 3rd rated 1st baseman in the minors. In 2013, Cron hit 14 home runs and drove in 86 RBI. He makes contact. doesn’t strike out a lot (86 times in 134 games) and although he doesn’t have a ton of walks, he seems to be a patient hitter. Mark Sappington, their 4th rated prospect, can hit 97 on the gun and has an above average slider. He only gave up 82 walks in 156 innings and batters hit a combined .223 against him. Although he had a decent 2013 as a starter, the Angels could see him being a set up man or even as their closer within the next 2 years. After these two, there has to be some concern. Most of the other teams that I have researched had at least one player in their top 10 with some kind of major league experience. The Angels have none.Their top prospect, Kaleb Cowart, really regressed last year. Mechanical problems in his swing caused him to not only strike out a lot (124 times in 132 games) but also saw his average dip to .221. He is young (21) and he can certainly work on the holes in his swing but at AA ball he should be at a point where he is being talked about as giving the Angels some help down the road but now he will need at least one more full year just to get back to where he was. Taylor Lindsey, their #2 prospect and the 7th ranked second baseman, has improved with his bat. Last year at AA Arkansas he hit .274 with 17 home runs and 56 RBI. Lindsey has the potential of being a DH candidate if the Angels needed him but he has very limited range at 2nd.

4. Oakland A’s: Like the Angels, the Oakland A’s do not have a top 10 prospect with any major league experience. Almost every player on that list appears to be one to two years away before making any kind of impact on the major league side. The only reason that the A’s get the slight edge over the Angels is because they have one of the best shortstop prospects in all of baseball in Addison Russell. Russell could easily have been ranked in the top 10 but sits at #12. last year in AA, Russell hit .275 with 17 homeruns and 60 RBI. He does strike out a lot (116 in 107 games) but he clearly has pop in his bat, he’s fast (he had 21 stolen bases) and he has an extremely strong arm from the short stop hole. At 20 years old, he is still learning the game but he should be ready to make a major contribution at some point during the 2015 season. Billy McKinney was drafted last year with the 24th over all pick. In his first pro season, McKinney went out and batted .326 and appears to have a little speed having 8 stolen bases in 55 games. At 19 years old has time to develop power but there are certainly things he needs to work on, mainly in the outfield. Other then above average speed, he has very average tools. He does not have a very powerful arm and will need to work on angles to the ball. Matthew Olson, their 5th rated prospect, is the 5th rated 1st baseman in the minors. If you look at his numbers, he may remind you of another Oakland A’s first baseman, Mark McGwire. Like McGwire, he has a lot of pop in his bat. He hit 23 homers last year and drove in 93 runs. But also like McGwire, he only hit .225 and had 148 strikeouts in 134 games. What’s funny is the fact that he does rate so highly as a first baseman. The A’s decided to move him from his regular position of 3rd due to his average range and has very little experience on the other side of the diamond. Like most of their prospects, he just turned 20 (in fact his birthday was yesterday) and he should need 2 years before he can help out Oakland on a regular basis.

3. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners are clearly right in the middle of the pack of the West. Although they do have 2 players in their top 10 who are older than most minor league players (#3 Rick Paxton-25, #7 Chris Taylor-23), they have some depth, 2 prospects in the top 100, and have one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball in Tijaun Walker. Walker made a brief appearance at the end of last year with the Mariners and was set to be in the middle of their rotation coming out of Spring Training. However, due to shoulder stiffness, he will begin the season on the DL. Walker ranks 6th over all and is rated as the #2 right handed pitcher in baseball. He can hit 96 on the gun and has an All Star type slider. Last year in the minors he went 9-10 with a 2.93 ERA and 160 strike outs in 147 innings pitched. Teamed up with King Felix, Walker could be the #2 pitcher in their rotation very soon. Not only was D.J.Peterson the Mariners first pick last year (12th overall), he already is ranked as the 8th best 3rd baseman and 88th on MLB.COM’s list. Although he is projected to be on their roster in 2016, Peterson has a big bat hitting 13 homeruns in his first 55 professional games. He could be moved to first base at some point in his near future due to having average range down the line. Peterson started his career at A Clinton but at the age of 22, if he can show he can be a complete hitter, he could be used as early as next year as a possible DH. Other than Walker, Rick Paxton is the only player who ranks in their top ten with any kind of MLB experience. Last year with a brief stint in Seattle, he went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 24 innings pitched. Paxton starts the season in the Mariners rotation but if he struggles he should be a candidate to stay on the roster in their bull pen. Tall left handed pitchers who throw in the mid 90’s are a premium and as long as he can show he can get batters out, he should have a home in Safeco. The one player who we need to keep an eye on is Danny Hultzen. Hultzen was the #2 pick back in 2011 and appeared to be set to be in their rotation. He had a combined 5-1 record and a 2.04 ERA when he was shut down twice for having shoulder injuries. Until he can show that he can stay healthy for an extended period, Hultzen should be looked at as a bull pen type pitcher. Seattle certainly hasn’t given up hope.

2. Texas Rangers: It’s not impressive that the Rangers have 5 players ranked in the top 100. What is, however, is the fact that they have talent at several positions and have the potential to having a few more on that list. The #39th ranked player in the minors, Jorge Alfaro, might be the next coming of another top Rangers catcher; Ivan Rodriguez. Sure, Alfaro hits with a decent average as a catcher (.265 in 3 combined spots) and he has a little power (18 combined home runs), but he has the strongest arm in the minor leagues. He has an absolute cannon from behind the plate and probably could compete with anyone in the majors from that standpoint. But Alfaro needs to work on his craft as an every day catcher. He just started playing the position about 3 years ago and at 20 years old he may need another 2 full years before he sees a major league pitch. Rougned Odor is easily one of my 5 favorite players in the minors. At the beginning of last year, Odor was rated highly has a second baseman but wasn’t looked at as a top 100 prospect. But ending the season with 11 homeruns, 78 RBI, a .305 average, 85 runs scored and 41 doubles certainly helps to get noticed. Ranked as the 59th best prospect and the #2 second baseman, Rougned’s future will most likely be on the right side of the field. He made quite a few errors last year and doesn’t have the strongest arm. But if he can cut down on the miscues, he could have a bright future in the majors. Thier #5 ranked player in their system, Joey Gallo, could be one of the best power hitters to come out of the minors in some time. Last year he lead all the minor leagues with 40 home runs while driving in 88 runs. The problem is that he only batted .255 and had an incredibly high amount of strikeouts with 172. The #9 rated third baseman must be more patient at the plate if he is to succeed at the next level. It also doesn’t help that even though he has a very strong arm from the hot corner, he doesn’t have much range and is very slow afoot. MLB.COM has him ranked as a 30 on the speed factor, which is one of the lowest grades a player can get. Right now, Gallo is still a year or two away from being looked at as a possible major leaguer but he could have a career as a DH in the American League. Luke Jackson is ranked as the Rangers second best pitching prospect but may have had one of the better years in the minors. In 2 combined stops, he went 11-4 with a 2.04 ERA and had 134 strikeouts in 128 innings. Jackson was so impressive in the Carolina League last year that he actually started the Carolina/California League All Star game. His best pitch is the fast ball reaching back and hitting 97 on the gun but he must work on his secondary pitches. He also has to work on using his defense more. He often fell behind in counts and would see a high pitch total. If he can cut down on the pitches and learn to worked deeper into games, Jackson has the potential of breaking into the top 100 very easily.

1. Houston Astros: If I had to rate the Astros organization with the rest of the Major League systems, they would be the second best overall. Although they don’t have a lot of talent ready to make an impact in Houston at this time, they are extremely deep and have 7 players ranked in the top 66. Their top prospect, Carlos Correa, ranks 8th overall and is the #3 rated short stop in the minors. Once thought to be a “slot player” (a player who is drafted because of signability and not necessarily on talent alone), this former #1 pick has surely been everything that the Astros thought he would be. In 2013, Correa batted .320 with 9 home runs, 86 RBI, and 10 stolen bases. And he did this all as an 18 year old kid! Carlos is at least 3 years away from seeing a Houston jersey and the fan base must be patient but he could be a perennial All-Star and potential MVP candidate. Mark Appel was originally drafted by the Pirates back in 2012 but decided not to sign to go back to college. The move paid off because Appel was drafted #1 overall last year by the Astros. Mark will most likely start the season in Single A but only briefly. He should move up the organization quite quickly and could be in their rotation as early as next year. Appel ranks 17th overall and as the #6 rated right hand pitcher. Their third rated prospect, George Springer, had a great chance to make the roster right out of Spring Training. The possible move to start him back in the minors might have something to do with them holding his MLB time back and not necessarily on him being ready. Last year, Springer missed having a 40/40 season by 3 homeruns. In 2 combined stops he had 37 homeruns, 108 RBI, a .303 average and 45 stolen bases. He does strike out quite a bit (161 k’s in 135 games) but he should be the starting right fielder by the All-Star break. George ranks 21st overall in the top 100. Having 3 players rank in the top 21 would be great for any team, but this team just keeps going. The 50th ranked player and 4th overall in their organization, Jonathon Singleton ranks as the #1 rated first baseman in the minors. Lance McCullers has a fast ball that can hit 97 on the gun and is ranked 52nd. Mike Foltynewicz is another top right handed pitcher and sits 2 slots behind McCullers. The only downfall is that the majority of these names (outside Springer and Singleton) are all very young and haven’t advanced past single A yet. You have to go all the way to their 12th rated player, Max Stassi, before you see a player with any kind of major league experience. It could be a good 2 years before you see some of this talent but once they hit the major league roster, they have to potential of turning a basement dweller into an American League West powerhouse.

March 29, 2014

Breaking Down the American League Central Minor League Systems

Being a fan like yourself, it is very difficult to travel around the country to see all of the prospects on every team. Simply put, I do not have the time nor the money to do it. But living in Baltimore I am with in an hours distance of teams who play in the A Carolina League and AA Eastern League, both of which who has teams that represent the American League Central. Having a first hand look certainly helps when trying to compare how the teams in the division stack up against one another. The majority of the division is made up of relatively small market teams. Detroit sits 5th in the league with a $162 million dollar payroll while the rest of the Central ranks between 19th and 26th. Kansas City who is typically looked at as the smallest team in the majors actually has the second highest payroll in the division with just barely over 92 million. It is crucial for teams like this to have a strong minor league system that can help bring up talent each year while keeping the payroll down. Unfortunately, not every team wishes to put the time and money into the player development and scouting that could help them win.

5. Chicago White Sox: Although 3 of the White Sox top 4 prospects have major league experience, there is only one who looks like he is ready to step in and make a major contribution. Their top prospect, Erik Johnson, ranks 70th over all on MLB.COM’s top 100 list. Johnson had a pretty good year last year and actually made 5 starts for Chicago. He went 3-2 with a 3.25 ERA, 18 strikeouts and seems like a good candidate to start the season in the back part of their rotation. Matt Davidson also has some major league experience but looks like he will be starting the season down in AAA. Davidson ranks 80th overall and is the 7th rated 3rd base prospect in the minors. Although his numbers looked like he was close to staying on the major league roster (.280/17/74), he struck out 134 times in 114 games. He also appears to be an average 3rd baseman at best. My guess would be that if he gets called up before the All Star game it would be as a DH. Their top pick back in 2012, Courtney Hawkins, seemed like he was becoming the player the White Sox assumed he would when he started for Kannapolis and put up some decent numbers. He was immediately pushed to Winston Salem where he did a complete 180. Once rated as the top prospect in their system, Hawkins batted just .178 last year and lead the Carolina League with 160 strike outs in 103 games. This is a key stat because it appears that a lot of the organizations top prospects seem to be free swingers. Their top pick last year and third rated player in their system, Tim Anderson, struck out 78 times in 68 games. This is a big reason why the Sox only have 2 players ranked in the top 100.

4. Detroit Tigers: The Tigers will start their top prospect, Nick Castellanos, right out of the gate at 3rd base. Detroit traded Prince Fielder in the off season and moved Miguel Cabrera to 1st to make room for the move for Nick to be in the Opening Day lineup. A frontrunner for the American League Rookie of the Year, Castellanos only appeared in 11 games last year but was having a pretty decent year at Toledo before that. In 134 games at AAA he was batting .276 with 18 home runs and 76 RBI. Nick ranks 15th overall and is the #3 rated 3rd base prospect in the minors. After Castellanos, the Tigers tend to thin out a bit in terms of having major league ready players. Robbie Ray was moved over to Detroit when they decided to trade Doug Fister to the Nationals. Ray was not originally listed in the top 100 list last year but comes into 2014 as the 97th ranked player. Combined he went 11-5 with a 3.36 ERA and 160 strikeouts in 148 innings pitched. Ray still needs some work but it looks like he could be in the middle to the back end of the rotation before the end of the year. Jonathan Crawford was their top pick last year and ranks as the 5th best player in their organization. Like most of their top 10 prospects, he still has a long way to go since he made his professional debut in A Connecticut. This University of Florida pitcher has a fast ball that has been clocked as high as 96 miles per hour but must work on his secondary pitches. Both Crawford and Ray should be major contributors for the Tigers by 2016.

3. Cleveland Indians: If you read my posts in the past you know that my favorite prospect in the minors is Francisco Lindor. Lindor ranks as the 10th rated player in the minors and as the 4th ranked shortstop. He will never hit 20 homeruns in a season nor will he drive in 100 runs, but he could be a leadoff hitter who could bat .300, score 100 runs, and steal some bases. What makes him most valuable is the way he plays shortstop. He has a strong arm and can cover the hole as quick as anyone at the major league level. From a fielding perspective he could take over right now but he must develop some power in order to stay a #1 hitter and not a #9. Clint Frazier was the #5 pick last year and already ranks 48th overall. This 19 year old outfielder started his career out in rookie ball and could start the 2014 season in A Lake County. Last year in limited action he had 5 home runs and 28 RBI in 44 games. Indians fans should be seeing him chasing down fly balls in centerfield in 2017. Where Cleveland lacks a lot of talent though is in their pitching prospects. Their top two pitchers, Trevor Bauer and Cody Anderson, both have been inconsistent and have taken steps backwards from moving up. Bauer, who ranks 72nd overall, has struggled on both the AAA and the Major league levels. In a brief stint with the Indians last year, he pitched only 17 innings and had a 5.29 ERA. He worked on his delivery much of the 2013 season and it is uncertain as to what his future holds. If he can not find his control, his career may be better suited for the bull pen. Anderson had an amazing start to his season while pitching for the Carolina Mud Cats. A Carolina League All-Star, he went 9-4 with a 2.34 ERA and looked like he wouldn’t have a problem making the transition to AA Eastern League. However, that was not the case. In 12 innings, he had a 5.68 ERA and allowed opponents to bat .320 against him. Most likely he will start the season again in AA Akron where hopefully he can find his way back on track.

2. Kansas City Royals: The Royals, who have 4 players in the top 100, have a lot of talented young players in their organization but the majority of them are a full year a way (if not more) to making the major league roster. Their top prospect, Kyle Zimmer, looked like a total bust the first half of last year. In A Wilmington he had an ERA that was above 6 and couldn’t find his way out of the 4th inning. But he made an adjustment to his weight placement on his front leg and totally changed his season around. He made the move to AA Northwest Arkansas and in a brief time there went 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and an amazing 27 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched. The 2012 first round pick looks like he is on his way to being a star but I am afraid that the Royals will push him up to the majors too soon. He may see time this year at some point but I feel he would be better suited for one more full year with a spot in the middle of the rotation for him next year. Zimmer ranks 25th overall and is rated the #10 right handed pitcher. Yordono Ventura already appears set to be in the Royals rotation this year. The 35th ranked player throws extremely hard topping off at 101 miles per hour and has an above average curveball. If he struggles to go deep into games, it is possible he could find himself being the set up man or closer. Adalberto Mondesi and Jorge Bonifacio are the Royals most talented position players but will not be ready anytime soon. Mondesi, who played last year in A South Atlantic League was the youngest player in the league at 17 years old. The son of former NL Rookie of the Year Raul Mondesi, already ranks 39th due to his power potential and his speed. Last Year he had 7 home runs and stole 24 bases while adding 7 triples. Where he needs more work as well as experience is in the field. Between shortstop and second base he made over 40 errors in 125 games. He has the arm strength to play short but it is unclear where the Royals will finally play him on a regular basis. Kansas City fans will need to be extremely patient. It will be at least 2017, if not longer, before you see him in a Major League uniform. Bonifacio is not the most talented outfield prospect because he doesn’t have one tool that stands out. But he is consistent and as steady a prospect as you will see in the minors. Last year he combined for a .298 average and never hit under .296 in any one of the three stops he made. He has an above average arm and seems destined to play right field.

1. Minnesota Twins: The Twins are not only the clear #1 in the division from a minor league perspective, it is a safe bet that they are in the top 5 in the majors. They are deep and have players who could be making an impact as early as this year. They have 5 players who rank in the top 100 and they have the top rated player in all the minors with Byron Buxton. Buxton is just a stud at every level he has played at. Last year, he combined for 12 homeruns, 77 RBI, batted an astounding .334, had 55 stolen bases and had 109 runs scored. He is an extremely fast centerfielder who could be a contributor just on his defense alone. If he stays on pace with his 2013 season, he should start the season in AA New Britain and progress to being on the Twins roster at some point late in the 2014 season. Miguel Sano was a candidate to start the season with Minnesota right out of Spring Training but suffered an elbow injury that could side line him for the entire 2014 season. Last year, Sano combined for 35 home runs and 103 RBI. He’s a strong guy who is rated as the # 3 player in all of baseball and the #1 third base prospect. From a pitching standpoint, the Twins aren’t hurting there either. Their top prospect, Alex Myers, pitched at AA last year and had could also make an appearance in Minnesota this year. Last year he went 4-3 with a 3.21 ERA and had 84 strikeouts in 70 innings. Kohl Stewart was the #4 pick in last years draft and at 19 years old already ranks 4th in their system. Stewart needs to work up to the same point Myers is but I would imagine that he could start off in A Ft Myers. He can touch 96 on the gun and has an average major league slide right now. Look for him to be in a Twins uniform by sometime in 2016.

March 22, 2014

Breaking down the American League East Minor League Systems

When you think of the American League East the two teams that always come to mind is the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox and that’s for good reason. They are two of the oldest franchises in baseball and also have what appears to be an endless supply of money to spend each year. But over the years they tend to over look their minor league systems even though the Yankees won 4 World Series at the end of the 90’s because of players like Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada to name a few who were home grown. Since 2001, both teams have appeared in 3 World Series with the Yankees winning one of those and the Red Sox winning all 3. Part of that is because the Red Sox have tried to stay relatively young using more of their farm system and spending the money where needed. The other three teams (Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays) haven’t been consistent. Not only have bad signings hurt these teams, they have never really developed the prospects in order to contend on a regular basis. You could argue that the Rays have been contenders over the last 5 years but it helps that the 5 years prior to that they were cellar dwellers always drafting in the top 10 and picking players like David Price and Evan Longoria. It appears that the blue print is clear. It doesn’t matter if you have money or not, you must develop players in the minors and use the pocket books to plug in. Unfortunately one of the big two is doing just that.

5: New York Yankees: The Yankees have to be looked at as last in the division (and maybe even in the bottom 5-10 in baseball) due to two reasons. First of all they only have 2 players ranked in the top 100 and secondly it is unclear what their plan is for their top 4 prospects. The top 4 players in their minor league system is Gary Sanchez (catcher), Mason Williams (centerfielder), Slade Heathcott (centerfielder) and J.R. Murphy (catcher). Other than having 4 players at the same two positions, it’s also the same two that the Yankees decided to fill in free agency with Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury. Sanchez is the most ready to make an impact of the 4 due to his bat and his arm behind the plate. Last year he hit a combined 15 home runs and shows that he could be a power bat at some point in the Yankees line up as early as this year. But how can he play on a regular basis with McCann sitting on a 5 year deal? The Yanks signed Sanchez as a 16 year old and watched him grow into the 4th ranked catcher in the minors 5 years later. I am assuming the idea is to now trade him since you would be killing his value if you tried to move him to a different position. Williams and Heathcott were better known for their defense then for their bats. Williams is just slightly faster and can cover a little more ground where Heathcott has the stronger arm from the outfield. But again both players developments have been impeded due to the signing of Ellsbury. Another thing to look at is the fact that the Yankees don’t appear to have any real pitching help coming up soon. Their top rated pitcher ranks 8th (Ian Clarkin) and was drafted with their 3rd 1st round pick last year. MLB.COM projects him making the roster at some point in 2017.

4. Toronto Blue Jays: The only reason that the Blue Jays rank 4th is because they have less players ready to contribute on the major league roster. They have a fairly deep organization with their top 3 players ranking in the top 100. Their top prospect, Aaron Sanchez, ranks 23rd over all and is rated as the 9th best right handed pitcher. Sanchez still has some work to go considering he only pitched in A Dunedin last year. In 86 innings pitched last year, he had a 3.34 ERA and held opponents to a .202 batting average. Sanchez projects as a top 3 pitcher in their rotation as early as the 2015 season. Marcus Stroman is much closer to making an impact on the Blue Jays roster and could be called up at some point this year. The second rated prospect in their system pitched the entire year at AA New Hampshire last season and had one of the best years of any Eastern League pitcher. He went 9-5 with a 3.30 ERA and 129 strikeouts. The biggest concern about Stroman is the baggage he brings with him. Back in 2012, he was suspended for 50 games for testing positive for a banned substance. The only player with major league experience is their 10th rated prospect, Sean Nolin, and it wasn’t even enough to really call it experience. He pitched 1 inning last year and gave up 7 hits. Don’t let that misguide you on his ability though. Nolin went 9-4 last year in the minors with a combined 2.77 ERA. The rest of the players in between were all in Full A Ball or lower.

3. Tampa Bay Rays: The Blue Jays appear to be slightly deeper in their organization but Tampa ranks higher because they have more players ready to contribute this year. Their top prospect, Jake Odorizzi, has travelled around quite a bit being in 2 block buster trades in 4 years (one with Zach Greinke and another for James Shields). Odorizzi not only is ranked 56th overall, but also appears ready to step in at the back end of their rotation right now. Jake made 4 starts for Tampa last year and had a commendable 3.94 ERA. He has the ability to get outs and averaged 1 strike out per inning in the minors. Another player competing for a roster spot is their 6th ranked player, RHP Alex Colome. In 3 starts last year in the majors, Colome had an impressive 2.25 ERA in 16 innings of work. Unless he makes the roster as a relief pitcher on Opening Day, my feeling is that he will start the season in AAA Durham but would be the first person called up if someone in their rotation went down. Nick Ciuffo was the second catcher taken in last years draft and was the 21st player overall. At the age of 19, MLB.COM already ranks him as the 9th best catcher in the minors. It is obvious he will need at least 2-3 years to develop before he sees a major league jersey but he has a strong arm and has the makings of bringing a power bat to the line up.

2. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles not only seem to have a deep minor league system having 2 players ranking in the top 31, but they have someone who could be a top 3 pitcher in their rotation right now. What’s scary is that he isn’t even ranked as their top prospect! Dylan Bundy was originally ranked as the top pitching prospect in all of baseball last year until he needed surgery on his pitching elbow. Bundy still ranks as the #20 player on the board and the #9 RHP. He will most likely return to the mound sometime in late April to early May and pitch for the AA Bowie Baysox. If he can show the Orioles he has come back fully, he could make an appearance in an Orioles uniform in September. Kevin Gausman has the most experience on a major league roster of any of the top prospects in the East. Although he struggled a bit last year, he still showed he could strike out big league hitters having 49 strikeouts in 47 innings. Gausman appears ready to take over as one of the starting 5, possibly as high as the O’s #4. There was even some talk that if he didn’t make the rotation, he could be looked at as the early candidate to close. Eduardo Rodriguez ranks 68th over all and may actually have more potential then the other two. Rodriguez doesn’t have an over powering fast ball like Bundy or Gausman but seems more “pitcher ready” due to his command. Last year combined he went 10-7 with a 3.41 ERA and made an appearance in the Futures Game. The Orioles top pick last year, Hunter Harvey, already ranks 4th on their list and has made the jump to their short season A team, the Aberdeen Ironbirds. The 19 year old already hits in the mid-90’s on the gun and has an above average curveball for his age. He will most likely need 3 years in the minors before seeing Camden Yards.

1. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox not only has far and away the best system in the division, it is possible they may have the best in baseball. They have 9 players ranked in the top 100, with their top 7 ranking in the top 62. Xander Bogaerts, the top rated shortstop in baseball and the #2 ranked player overall, has already solidified his spot on Opening Day. His experience goes beyond just a couple of innings making both the playoff roster last year for Boston as well as the World Series roster. In 116 games played in the minors last year, Bogaerts had a .297 average, 15 homeruns, 67 RBI and 72 runs scored. There is no question he will be batting in the back end of the lineup to start the season. Before the Grady Sizemore signing, the 3rd ranked player for the Red Sox, Jackie Bradley Jr., was primed to join Bogaerts in the starting line up. Bradley had been moved up and down between the minors and majors all of last season even starting on Opening day last year. He seemed to struggle quite a bit at the plate but the Red Sox were very impressed with the way he played the outfield. With his speed and arm he has the potential of being a Gold Glove winner and should help him to stay on the roster in 2014. Garin Cecchini, the 6th ranked player in their organization reminds a lot of people of another Boston third baseman: Wade Boggs. Between 2 spots last year, he had a .322 average, 94 walks, and 80 runs scored. He has progressively moved up the system and could be looked at this year if Wil Middlebrooks struggles. Trey Ball, their 1st round pick last year and the 7th overall, ranks 9th in their system. The fact that he ranks 9th is a sign of how deep the Red Sox minor league system really is. Most players drafted high last year can rank anywhere from 1st to 5th in in their teams respected organizations. Ball is 19 and just started throwing a curve a few years ago. It will take some time for him to develop and learn to be a complete pitcher but it is possible that he has more potential then other pitchers ranked ahead of him.

March 16, 2014

Breaking down the NL East Minor League Organizations

MLB.COM has been releasing it’s list of the top 20 prospects for each team in the month of March. At this point, the only division we have in full to look at and compare is that of the NL East teams. Although there is some talent within their systems, the East doesn’t appear to be very deep with either prospects ready to make an impact on the major league level nor with super star talent. Don’t get me wrong, players like Noah Syndergaard of the Mets and Maikel Franco of the Phillies could be All-Stars for their teams. But there is no one as of yet that stands as someone who could be the face of their franchise in a few years down the road. With that said, lets take a look, in order from least to first, how the teams break down.

5. The Atlanta Braves- The reason that the Braves rank last in the division is for two reasons. The first one being that they only have 2 players currently ranked in the top 100 and secondly, most of their talent lies in the lower class leagues. As a team that has perennially won over a 20 year span, they don’t generally draft in the top 10 at any point. Their top prospect, Lucas Simms, is only 19 years old and has only pitched in A Rome up to this point. If he progresses, he is projected to make the majors in about 2 years and has the potential of being a #1 or #2 starter in the rotation. Jason Hursh, their third rated prospect, was their top pick in last years draft but the Braves need to be careful with his progress. Taken with the 31st pick last year, Hursh had Tommy John surgery his sophomore year at Oklahoma State. With only 27 innings pitched in the Sally League last year, he had a 0.67 ERA and should start the season in Rome again. The Braves do have two players who could be on the roster on Opening Day. The first being Christian Bethancourt, a catcher who appeared in 1 game last year. It is unclear what Atlanta will do behind the plate having two catchers in Ryan Doumit who has had concussions in the past and Evan Gattis who is 27 but only had 170 at bats last year. Of all the players who could make an impact, Bethancourt would be the guy. He batted .277 last year in the minors and he is certainly ready to play at that position. He has a strong arm and could be the starter if either one of those guys ahead of him struggle. The other player who could make the team is David Hale. Hale pitched in 2 games last year and did fairly well. In 11 innings pitched, he went 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 14 strikeouts. It is unclear, however, how Atlanta views his future. If he makes the team it is possible it would be in the back part of the rotation or it could be out of the bull pen.

4. Washington Nationals- The Nationals are ahead of the Braves on my list but it could have been a toss up either way. Like the Braves, Washington only has 2 players ranked in the top 100 with very little help on the horizon. Lucas Giolito is their top ranked player coming in at #44 out of the top 100. He has a lot of talent and potential but he is 19 years old and was actually hurt at the time when he was drafted. He made one appearance before being shut down to have Tommy John Surgery. He actually came back in July of last year and pitched very well. In 36 innings, he went 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 39 strikeouts. Their 2nd ranked pitcher, A.J. Cole, can reach 98 on the gun and advanced as far as AA Harrisburg last year. He actually appeared to do better at the higher level after his call up. Before being called up to the Eastern League, Cole had an ERA of 4.25. In 45 innings pitched in AA he posted a 2.18 ERA. At this time he is being projected as a middle of the rotation type pitcher but he is at least a full year away before he pitches in Washington. After their top two prospects, there has to be some concern. Brian Goodwin started the season out last year ranked in the top 50 of best prospects. But due to inconsistency at the plate with 121 strikeouts in 122 games, he has dropped completely off this list. Michael Taylor is 22 years old, ranks as their 4th rated prospect but played the entire season in A Potomac of the Carolina League. From there you have to go all the way to Zach Walters, their 10th rated player, before you find any prospects that has Major league time. Walters hit 29 homeruns last year at AAA Syracuse and played in 8 games with the Nationals at second base. The problem is that Anthony Rendon, a top 10 prospect coming into last year, is already playing out of position at second base and there is some question as to if Walters can play SS.

3. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies organization is clearly the third best team in the division from the minor league stand point. They are an upgrade over the Braves and Nationals because they have 2 impact players that could step in at some point in 2014. But where they are alike is that the majority of their top 10 prospects are at single A and even lower. Their top prospect, Maikel Franco, has the potential of being the next best position player in the East. He ranks 26th over all and combined between A and AA ball last year he hit .320 with 31 homeruns, and 103 RBI. Franco will most likely be the Phils 3rd baseman of the future but there has been some talk of moving him to 1st. It is clear though that he should see some time in Philly, even if it is a September call up. If you have followed my blogs in the past you know how high I am in Jesse Biddle. Biddle ranks 53rd and is one of the highest rated left handed pitchers in the minors. Here’s the good news: He has a Hall of Fame curve ball. It’s not just the break of the ball but the speed. He can hit 94 on the gun with a fast ball and then hit 66 with a curve. He had 154 strikeouts last year in 134 innings. The bad news: He tends to be wild at times and when things don’t go his way, he doesn’t keep his head in the game. Saying that, if he can work on those two things he should also see some time in a Phils uniform. Their third rated player, J.P. Crawford, was their top pick in last years draft. The highest rated high school short stop started his minor league career in rookie ball and made an appearance in A South Atlantic League at the age of 18. If he is to be the heir apparent to Jimmy Rollins, it will be about 3 years before that happens. Ethan Martin (8th ranked) and Cesar Hernandez (9th) both made contributions to the City of Brotherly Love last year. Martin struggled going 40 innings with a 2-5 record and a 6.08 ERA, however he should have a spot in the back end of the rotation or in their bull pen. Hernandez, on the other hand, held his own and probably created a roster spot for him self for Opening Day. In 34 games in the majors, he batted .289 and showed that he could either play 2b or of. Even if he isn’t a starter, he could be a very good utility man until he finds a spot at as an everyday starter.

2. The New York Mets: The Mets could have easily been named the #1 minor league organization in the East. They have 2 players that should be major contributors for the team this year (including one who could contend for Rookie of the Year) but after that, the majority of their prospects aren’t close. They also aren’t very deep having 3 players in the top 100. The cream of their minor league system, Noah Syndergaard should be a #3 or #4 in their rotation. He ranks 11th over all and is rated as the #3 rated right hand pitcher in all the minors. He certainly got Mets fans excited last year when he was named the starting pitcher for the Futures Game which was held in Flushing. At AA Birmingham last year he pitched 54 innings going 6-1, a 3.00 ERA and 69 strikeouts. If the Mets decide to use him from the get go, he will make a very good rotation that much better. The second player who should start for them right away is catcher Travis D’Arnaud. D’Arnaud is ranked as the 22nd best player and as the #1 catcher. He would have been the Mets starting catcher much earlier then now and actually had 99 at bats last year but he has struggled with injuries the last two years that hampered his progress. In 31 games, he batted .202 with 5 RBI. Even with his struggles it is pretty safe to say he will be the Opening Day catcher unless another injury appears. Dominic Smith was drafted # 11 in last years draft. Even at the age of 18, he is already rated as the #2 1st baseman in the minors. Smith has All-Star potential showing early in Rookie League that he can hit for both power and average but it will be a good 2-3 years before he would be considered in New York. Wilmer Flores is the only other player ranked in their top 10 that has major league experience. The 9th rated 2nd baseman in the minors played in 27 games last year with the Mets and it looks like he would be the first person called up from AAA if Daniel Murphy goes down.

1. Miami Marlins: The Marlins have a mixture of both a deep minor league organization while having a couple players ready to contribute this year. They have 4 players ranked in the top 100 with one of them ready to take over their center field position. Their top prospect, Andrew Heaney, is the top rated left handed pitcher in the minors. Last year he combined for a 9-3 record with a 1.60 ERA and had 89 strikeouts in 95 innings. Although MLB.COM is stating that he could be in a Marlins uniform as early as this year, my belief is that he should take another full year in the minors, starting in AA Jacksonville. The one thing is certain: he could be the next best young pitcher in the game once he does make it to the big leagues. Colin Moran was the Marlins #1 pick last year, ranks as the 51st best player in the minors and 5th overall at 3rd base. Colins biggest asset is his arm. He has an absolute cannon and should be a weapon in the same form Manny Machado was last year for the Orioles. It is still unclear what type of hitter he will be. Right now in his brief time in the minors, he has not shown the ability to hit for much power (4 homeruns in 154 at bats) but he did hit .299. Jake Marisnick struggled mightily last year in 40 games with the Marlins. He batted .183 with 27 strikeouts in 109 at bats but he is still the best center fielder they have on the roster. If nothing else he is fast and should help a young pitching staff cut down on some fly balls. The only other player to have major league time is their #7 prospect, Brian Flynn. Like Marisnick, Flynn struggled having an 8.50 ERA but it was only in 18 innings. Since ESPN is reporting that the Marlins do not have a starting pitcher making over 510k on their roster at the moment, it is unclear who the 5 in their rotation will be. With that in mind, it is very possible that Flynn could be in that mix.